2018 Academy Award Predictions: Where to Bet Your Money

This Sunday’s 90th annual Academy Awards ceremony is set to be an interesting one. The year brought us many good films (take that television!) which could make for a surprising night when it comes to the top prize. Plus, there is a bit of chatter and controversy surrounding two of the most nominated films of the night, which certainly throws a wrench into the betting pools. Let’s take a look at my locks and potential scenarios regarding the major categories.

Acting:

Supporting Actor: Although there is a bit of “woke” chatter regarding Sam Rockwell’s despicable racist character in Three Billboards, I still think he (and Francis McDormand, below) have their respective categories locked up. And if you’ve seen The Florida Project, you know how refreshing it is to see a familiar face amongst all the non-actors in that film. Whether you liked it or not (I hated it), Willem Dafoe brings the heat, always.

Smart Money: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-864)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+400)

Supporting Actress: An interesting one here, because I believe this is Lady Bird‘s only shot at an award Sunday night. If Metcalf doesn’t win, Lady Bird goes home empty-handed. The word is that audiences loved the film, but the Academy thinks it’s just fine, which doesn’t bode well for Greta Gerwig and company.

Smart Money: Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-635)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+394)

Actor, Lead Roll: 

Should the Academy take into consideration Gary Oldman’s past transgressions, then DDL wins this award. Whether you think its fair or not is your call, but Gary acted his ass off in Darkest Hour.

Smart Money: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-1664)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread, (+1300)

Actress, Lead Roll

Smart Money: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards..blah blah blah (-2421)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Save it. I don’t think any other nominee in this category has a shot.

Original Screenplay

This is as intriguing as a category can be: Get Out is even money right now, and heading into this week I expected it to be a long-shot. The Academy showed last year that it isn’t afraid to pick un-Academy nominations as winners, and although it is the favorite, this could be a huge win for Jordan Peele. I would be ecstatic if it did win, and given the controversy surrounding Three Billboards, and the plagiarism accusations surrounding The Shape of Water, it’s no wonder Get Out is the favorite. But still – you need to take into consideration the Best Picture category here. In the last fourteen years, twelve films have won either Original Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay and went on to win Best Picture. Call Me By Your Name is the sole film nominated for Adapted Screenplay that is also up for Best Picture, and that has no shot at the top prize Sunday. So if the Academy steers clear of controversy, this COULD mean a Screenplay Oscar AND a Best Picture Oscar for Jordan Peele’s Get Out. Another interesting thing here: I don’t think The Shape of Water has any shot at winning this award, which certainly doesn’t help it’s Best Picture chances. Finally, Three Billboards did win the Golden Globe, and even with the so-called “controversy” surrounding it does still have a chance at Best Picture.

Smart Money: Get Out, (even)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Three Billboards… (+185)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Smart Money: Call Me By Your Name, (-1429)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Save it. This is a lock.

Best Director

Smart Money: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (-924)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Nolan is next best bet at (+630) but, I’ll be damned if Del Toro doesn’t walk away with this.

Best Picture

As stated earlier, if you think the Academy will take into consideration the controversies surrounding both Three Billboards and The Shape of Water, then we’ve certainly got an interesting race on our hands. As Sean Fennessey so eloquently stated in one of the Ringer’s two thousand videos (at the 11-minute mark) from this week, if none of the nine nominees get 50% of the vote, then things REALLY get interesting, which – with the case I made earlier – COULD possibly lead to Get Out or even Dunkirk walking away with this award. With all of that said, I still think Three Billboards has a shot here (I mean, it IS still the favorite) since it did win Best Drama at the Golden Globes and many other awards this season. It’s an intriguing night ahead of us, and I can’t say I’ll be mad about any of these scenarios. We got one hell of a movie year in 2017, and thats most important on this night.

Smart Money: My gut is telling me The Shape of Water (+137)

If You’ve Got Some Extra Cash: Get Out (+497) and Dunkirk (+2800)

The event will air on ABC on March 4th at 8 P.M ET with Jimmy Kimmel playing host.