93rd Academy Awards Predictions & Odds

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The 93rd Academy Awards ceremony will be held this Sunday, April 25th. To state the obvious, this year will be different; the deadline for eligibility was extended and the ceremony was pushed way back from its usual late-February/early-March slot. It’s difficult to predict what the Academy will champion at the end of a normal year, let alone one that prohibited our ability to watch a movie on a giant screen in the dark with strangers.

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Leading up to this ceremony, and starting in September 2020 when it had its premiere (at both the Venice FF and Toronto International FF), Nomadland has been the overall favorite. The list of accolades it has received has been growing since it won the Golden Lion (Venice) and People’s Choice (TIFF); it’s won the top award at virtually every ceremony where it’s been eligible, including the Golden Globes, BAFTA’s, and the Producer’s and Director’s Guild presentations. For anyone, the accomplishment of writing, directing, and editing a film is remarkable, but to have that piece of art recognized for its greatness, and subsequently win the top awards is a serious achievement. Look – awards don’t really mean anything, but to an artist such as Chloe Zhao, it validates the rather apparent hard work it takes to make anything. Nomadland is the odds on favorite — and it will be a bit of a shock if it doesn’t win some major categories.

As a bit of reference, I picked 19 of the 24 categories correctly last year, including the big Best Picture upset (which felt damn good, too). Of the major categories, I only missed Best Director because I thought there would be no way the Academy would let Bong Joon-ho and co. sweep the night. I’m glad they did, but that does open the door for a more democratic (wealth share/spread) evening this Sunday.

There are gains to be had on the underdogs, so if you’re picking correctly on a few favorites throughout the night, the extra “points” generated will be useful for some bold selections to make things interesting. Let’s begin with the director category…

(All odds courtesy of Bovada)

Best Director

  • Chloe Zhao – Nomadland (-3000)
  • David Fincher – Mank (+900)
  • Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (+2000)
  • Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (+2000)
  • Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round (+2500)

The only reason I think this may be the award Nomadland does not win is because the Academy likes to give make-up Oscars, and Mr. Fincher has yet to win one. Since 2012, the film which earned the Best Director Oscar has not won Best Picture five times. That’s enough for me to think there is somewhat of a chance. Given that Mank is about old Hollywood and making movies (which the Academy generally loves), and that Fincher should have a statue by now. HE WASN’T EVEN NOMINATED FOR Zodiac and should have easily won for The Social Network over Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech.

My Pick: The (+900) line on David Fincher looks awfully nice to me, and considering you can easily make that money back elsewhere, it should for you as well.

Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland – Chloe Zao (-275)
  • The Father – Christopher Hampton (+275)
  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Sacha Baron Cohen & co. (+700)
  • One Night In Miami – Kemp Powers (+1600)
  • The White Tiger – Ramin Bahrani (+4000)

My Pick: The spread between the favorite and second here are much closer than Best Director, but I fully expect Chloe Zhao to take this one. Nomadland.

Original Screenplay

  • Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell (-400)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin (+275)
  • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung (+1200)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Will Berson & Shaka King (+3300)
  • Sound of Metal – Darius & Abraham Marder (+3300)

This award always seems to me like it’s an appreciation of a filmmaker on the rise, or whose work is generally accepted as exceptional to that point. I’m thinking of people like Jordan Peele for Get Out, and Spike Jonze for Her. Unlike David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin (rightfully) won his Screenplay award (albeit, for Adapted) for 2010’s The Social Network, so I’m counting him as out. Considering the odds gap between he and Lee Isaac Chung, I’d say this is Emerald Fennell’s to lose.

My Pick: The Academy will award Emerald Fennell‘s stylistic and tragic revenge story as their winner.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari (-500)
  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (+400)
  • Glen Close – Hilbilly Elegy (+900)
  • Olivia Colman – The Father (+2200)
  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank (+3300)

My Pick: While I loved Seyfried in Mank, and Bakalova turns in a tremendous performance in Borat (did I just type that?), Minari turns from a good film to a great one when Yuh-Jung Youn‘s character shows up on the screen. The performance brings heat to almost every element and emotion, including some of the funniest scenes in any film this year.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (-3000)
  • Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (+1200)
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+1400)
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami (+1600)
  • LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah (+3300)

My Pick: If Kaluuya loses, I’ll sing and dance.

Best Actress

  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (+110)
  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (+205)
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland (+350)
  • Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (+650)
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (+2000)

Here’s a category that saw Andra Day win the Golden Globe, Viola Davis win the SAG, Frances McDormand win the BAFTA, and Carey Mulligan win the Critic’s Choice, as well as Hollywood and LA Film Critic’s awards. With money to be had on all nominees, and a decent shot at any one of them winning, how could you not love this?

My Pick: Frances is a recent winner with 2017’s Three Billboards…(not to mention her Fargo statuette), and Viola also has a recent win with 2016’s Fences. Promising Young Woman was tremendous, and I think Carey Mulligan goes home with her first.

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (-1400)
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father (+700)
  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (+1100)
  • Gary Oldman – Mank (+3300)
  • Steven Yeun – Minari (+3300)

My Pick: This would just be weird if Chadwick didn’t win.

Best Picture

  • Nomadland (-600)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+500)
  • Minari (+1600)
  • Promising Young Woman (+2000)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah (+4000)
  • Mank (+4000)
  • Sound of Metal (+8000)
  • The Father (+8000)

And then the night comes down to this. The heavyweight (Nomadland) in one corner, the Boomer pic (Chicago 7) in the other. And all the way down at (+1600) falls my beloved Minari. With the exception of Best Supporting Actress, I feel like Minari is getting a bit disrespected here. It was my favorite film of this year’s nominees yet it was almost overshadowed by Nomadland (because somehow, there isn’t enough room for two great indies?) in some respects. I believe Chloe Zhao will get her due come Sunday night, BUT — somewhere in my gut, I could see another massive upset here. Is it leftover euphoria and naïveté from last year’s unbelievable evening? Maybe. Is it foolish of me to think there can be another upset for our final award? Probably. But is it foolish to dance a little bit with these odds?! I don’t think so.

In some sick world, Chicago 7 wins Best Picture, yet I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to choose the safe bet — and hey, the way this year+ has been going, this could be that world. So while throwing a little at Sorkin’s film could see a return, you’re also confirming that this is some kind of alternate, dark timeline. And I don’t want to live in that timeline.

My Pick: While I have a hard time foreseeing Nomadland losing, I think I’ll ride the high of last year’s ceremony and dance with Minari at (+1600).

Other fun ones…

Cinematography

Nomadland is (once again) the favorite in this category, but Mank looks like a decent play at (+300). The Artemple VFX breakdown video is absolutely incredible, and diving even deeper, understanding what David Fincher and cinematographer Erik Messerschmidt did to get the picture to look like it does, shooting in an 8k source format, tightening the frame to make movements smoother, and then adding the film “grain” effect afterward is truly remarkable.

Documentary Feature

I feel like My Octopus Teacher was the decided winner a long time ago. My guess with this category is that everyone kind of looks at each others answers like they’re collectively cheating on a test — probably because a lot of the Academy doesn’t bother to actually watch these nominees.

Original Score

This year it’s Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Mank) against…Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and John Batiste (Soul). My guess is that they do NOT split the vote (which seems to be a thing that people bring up every year but never actually happens?), and Soul becomes the winner — although I’d argue Mank is a better score — and film for that matter, but I digress.

The potential for a great night is set, as Nomadland is poised to clean up while leaving the acting categories somewhat interesting. I always look forward to this night to see what the artists have to say and who they thank, as well as see what the Academy decides to completely fuck up. Last year’s ceremony may have been too good to be true, but after a year of stress, pain and tragedy, it’ll be fun to see what ends up being championed. Even if the year is one we’ll try not to remember, I truly believe some of these films will transcend our sadness and grief, and live on as pieces of art on their own terms.

Odds via Bovada.com