Baltimore Ravens Playoff Odds Tumble Despite Victory

Despite a 20-12 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, the Baltimore Ravens are now less likely to earn a spot in the AFC Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast. The Ravens helped themselves with the win but two teams on their tail — Indianapolis & Tennessee — also came out victorious. 

Now, as the regular season winds down to its final two weeks, the Ravens, Colts, and Titans all have identical 8-6 records. And while Baltimore currently owns the tiebreaker and would be the No. 6 seed if the AFC Playoffs started today, they have a tough game (on a short week) against the Chargers on the other side of the country in Week 16. The Titans, on the other hand, host Washington in Week 16 while the Colts host the five-win New York Giants. With that taken into account, FiveThirtyEight has Baltimore with a 41-percent chance to make the playoffs right now, a number that was at 55 percent before their win over Tampa Bay.

In the same forecast by FiveThirtyEight, the Colts are slightly below Baltimore at 34 percent but the Titans are a bit higher at 46 percent. Another predictor — ESPN’s Football Power Index — has Baltimore as the least likely of the three to get in, however, with the Colts (42 percent) ahead of the Titans (39 percent) and Ravens (32 percent).

AFC Playoff Picture (after Week 15)

*clinched playoff berth

#1: Kansas City (11-3)*
#2: Houston (10-4)
#3: New England (9-5)
#4: Pittsburgh (8-5)
#5: Los Angeles (11-3)*
#6: Baltimore (8-6)

#7: Indianapolis (8-6)
#8: Tennessee (8-6)
#9: Miami (7-7)

Hopefully, the Titans and Colts both lose in Week 16 (meaning Ravens fans will need to pull for the Redskins). Even if that happens, though, they close the year against one another so one of them will end 2018 with at least nine wins. If Baltimore goes 2-0, they’ll be good (99 percent via FiveThirtyEight) but if they go 0-2, they’re at zero percent. That said, they’re playing well right now and a Week 17 game against the Browns isn’t too scary. Let’s just hope they win out so it doesn’t get too complicated.

If you want to mess around with how wins and losses in the final two weeks impact the race, head to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL forecast project — it’s really fun, I promise.

Featured Image: Keith Allison