College Football: The Definitive Big 12 Football Preview
“Yae, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of summer sports and no football I shall fear no drudgery…”
Welcome back to football, folks. Well, almost. For most college programs, fall camp begins this week and I know most of you couldn’t be happier that Saturday’s are about to be a whole lot more festive. As the 2018 season approaches, some story beats will seem familiar and some will seem refreshingly new: Jim Harbaugh doesn’t eat chicken, Alabama rebuilds reloads, Tom Herman might have Texas back and Tennessee hopes not to go 0-8 again in the SEC.
Out in plains country, however, the Big 12 looks to mint new star power after a quarterback-dominated 2017 that saw Oklahoma top dog Baker Mayfield take home the Heisman en route to leading the Sooners to a playoff berth. What will the Big 12 look like in the grander, playoff-focused picture? Will the smallest P5 conference produce back-to-back Heisman winners? Is Texas barbecue still the best? Let’s find out.
Overall Landscape
As mentioned above, gone are almost all the stalwarts who were under center a year ago. Heisman-winner Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph, Kenny “Trill” Hill and Nic Shimonek have moved on from the college ranks. The Big 12, except for rare occasions, is most certainly a quarterback-dominated conference, given the surplus of offense and [at times] the relative lack of defense. So, the featured name on the Big 12’s LED billboard is…
Will Grier. Your marquee name riding into the 2018 season is Charlotte native and erstwhile Florida Gator Will Grier. After playing just over 10 games last season and posting 3,490 yards along with 34 TD’s, Grier returns to Morgantown shouldering mountain-sized hype. No other Big 12 player is pegged as a serious Heisman contender and, given the embarrassment of weapons surrounding the redshirt senior this season, no other player looks as likely to be cast in the same light.
Texas may seriously be on its way back, but it might be too early to declare that they are back. While Tom Herman is retooling the Longhorns, Matt Rhule is trying to bring the Bears back to relevancy in Waco while still being haunted by the specter of Title IX fallout and a years-long investigation that gutted the program. Matt Campbell and Iowa State took down eventual playoff team Oklahoma last year and are looking to parlay that kind of magic into a full season’s worth of production. Kansas is still, basically, Kansas. Bill Snyder continues to do what he’s done for decades in Manhattan. Oklahoma State will score points, mullet or not and lastly, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State are all trying to either name first time starters or resolve quarterback battles in short order by week one.
In short, the Big 12 has the potential to pleasantly surprise or be the ruin of many a weekend. It’s honestly hard to tell what this conference will end up looking like this year. Yes, there’s now a conference championship game but at 10 teams, it still doesn’t boast the divisional stakes that exist in the other four P5 conferences. Additionally no team, for the time being, is getting widespread media attention as a bona fide playoff contender. Without the political points aiding it, the Big 12 is going to be basing its hopes on having an 11 win team that takes the conference outright to have any shot of going after the College Football Championship. However, like the wild west geography much of the conference stretches across, the Big 12 is no stranger to things going crazy at the drop of a hat.
Best Odds to win the Big 12 Title
Oklahoma: Lincoln Riley basically wrote a case study last year on seamless coaching transitions. Heisman winner: check. Playoff berth: check. Out of this world recruiting: check. Overtime thriller against Georgia that will be re-watched for ages: check.
Riley may have to load up the wagons without Baker Mayfield, but the Sooners might simply do on the ground in 2018 what they did so well through the air in 2017. Rodney Anderson is one of the nation’s premier backs and will look to build off of a sophomore campaign where he posted 1,447 yards and 18 TD’s. Trey Sermon and his 744 yards from scrimmage also returns to help former blue-chipper and current millionaire Kyler Murray take over for Baker Mayfield.
While no one is expecting the Texas native to post passing numbers a la Mayfield, he could be potentially deadly in the ground game, especially behind a stout interior offensive line. Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Mykel Jones round out a solid receiving corps, should Riley want to air it out per Big 12 custom.
Defensively, Boomer Sooner lost four of its top six tacklers from a year ago. However, there’s a huge mix of veteran talent in queue that Mike Stoops can inject into a unit that gave up nearly 400 yards a contest in 2017.
Mark Jackson looks like a hybrid pass-rushing star in the making, Tre Norwood and Parnell Motley return at the corner spots where they should only take a step forward after a good showing in 2017 and there’s a mix of veteran experience along with hyped-up youth to make position battles in the secondary a welcome development. You don’t have to be a barricading juggernaut in the Big 12 to win games, you just have to bend well enough to not break. Oklahoma has all the pieces to do just that.
Oklahoma opens with the Lane Kiffin FAU show which should be a dazzler. Road contests against an improving Iowa State (which was a shocking home loss last season) and ever-ready TCU can’t be looked past. Texas comes to Norman which, as all rivalry games are wont to be, could be the biggest pitfall on Oklahoma’s schedule. But perhaps the most treacherous 2018 contest lies in a road trip to Morgantown on Black Friday against a Mountaineers squad that will be looking to steal Oklahoma’s Big 12 crown. If the Sooners can get past West Virginia and best Texas for the second year in a row, then playoff hopes are very realistic in 2018.
West Virginia: The last time the hype train was this fully geared-up was back in 2012 as Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey were fresh off the heels of a 70-33 demolishing of Clemson in the Orange Bowl and looked like a video game offense come to life. After making good on the hype in the first half of that season, the train jumped the track, landed in a magma lake and melted down to nothing. A storybook season, it was not.
The 2018 iteration of the Mountaineers bears some resemblance to that 2012 squad: a star quarterback, two NFL-quality receivers and a defense that most people can’t agree on. However, beyond the surface-level comparisons, there’s a lot about this West Virginia team that should make you a believer.
Will Grier, finally getting to experience real year-to-year continuity in a single system, is as good a playmaker as there is in the country and has a stupid amount of weapons at his disposal. Between David Sills, Gary Jennings, speedster Marcus Simms and eagerly-awaited Alabama transfer T.J. Simmons, The Mountaineers’ receiving corps is arguably the most stacked it’s been in program history and will probably be the nation’s finest. Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway form a veteran one-two punch at running back that is fortunate enough to line up behind an offensive line that returns four out of five starters, including man-child LT Yodny Cajuste and stud RT Colton McKivitz.
And, according to OC Jake Spavital, tight ends Trevon Wesco and Miami transfer Jovani Haskins will hold a more prominent role in the passing game. TIGHT ENDS?!! WHAT?!?
Yes, Tony Gibson’s defense was a punch line for many people after last year’s dismal showing but there’s renewed hope in 2018. The defensive line added graduate transfers from Jabril Robinson from Clemson and former five-star Kenny Bigelow from USC to aid veterans Ezekiel Rose and Reese Donahue. Human/jaguar hybrid David Long returns to wreak havoc at linebacker (75 tackles in nine games last season) and a loaded secondary that features former all-american Dravon Askew-Henry and rising sophomore phenom Kenny Robinson headline a unit that, by virtue of winning big in the transfer market, has both reliable depth and experience.
The Mountaineers schedule won’t do them any favors. the OOC slate includes road trips to Charlotte and Raleigh to face Tennessee and NC State, respectively. The path through the month of November could prove to be a meat grinder, the hallmark of which is the aforementioned Friday night game against reigning champ Oklahoma.
If The Mountaineers can mangle a rebuilding Tennessee and not let talented passer Ryan Finley pile up yards through the air, a top-10 ranking, undefeated record going into November and real, true-to-life Heisman consideration for Grier are all very possible. Regardless, the talent is there on both sides of the ball and, unlike 2012, so is the depth. Eight years in, if there’s ever been a year for Dana Holgorsen to field a team capable of winning the Big 12- this is it. The Air Raid-naissance may be upon us, friend-o’s.
Not Quite There Yet
Texas: If time is a flat circle, it’s proven so by the year in/year out narrative that Texas is BACK, BABY. Tom Herman was a savvy hire and, by virtue of sheer history and the largest budget of any program in the country, Texas never, ever, lacks top-end talent. If anything has held Texas back in recent years, it’s been continuity at the quarterback position and establishing any kind of offensive identity.
Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele split basically everything down the middle in 2017 and there’s no clear-cut QB1 (yet) to emerge between the two. Same goes for a rushing attack that featured three different running backs in 2017, none of which managed to crest 40 yards from scrimmage. Tre Watson transfers in from Cal and can line up as a receiving threat on top of being able to run off tackle. 6’6″ leviathan Calvin Anderson (765 yards last year), Jerrod Heard and Lil’Humphrey are also back at receiver, so Texas is far from out of options at the skill position.
No, what is going to anchor and possibly propel Texas in 2018 is defense. Apart from the TCU game last year, the Texas defense served notice to just about every conference opponent it faced. While standouts Malik Jefferson and Poona Ford are gone, the Longhorns return talent across the front senior Breckyn Hager who just might finally burst out this year in the pass rush. Hopefully for burnt orange nation’s sake, Texas can FINALLY settle on a QB1 and continue to be one of the best 3rd down defenses in the nation.
The horns can and should go bowling again this year and Tom Herman will show noticeable improvement in moving his chips into place for Texas to make a run back to the Big 12 owner’s box, but it’s probably not this year. Too many stars sit misaligned and the Longhorn network is still a thing.
Almost There
Iowa State: Iowa State is hard to dislike. The Cyclones hail from a tough part of the country and play tough football. They really had no business beating Oklahoma last year during Baker Mayfield’s Heisman run and, yet, down 24-10 in Norman it was the Kyle Kempt-led Cyclones left standing over no.3 Oklahoma when the clock struck zero.
The good news for ‘clones fans is that Kempt, who was thrust into action in the latter half of the season and is just an honest-to-god great success story, is back. Even better news is that David Montgomery, who might be the best back in the entire conference, will also return to improve on the 1,146 yards he totaled in 2017. Big picture-wise, coach Matt Campbell has something going in Ames and Iowa State, long a P5 doormat, is showing signs of being a legitimate year-to-year competitor in the Big 12.
The defense might regress a bit this year, as Joel Lanning, the do-everything man is no longer there as is a wealth of production at the safety spot but Iowa State has that intangible “it” that opposing teams simply can’t game plan around. Another 8-5 season is certainly possible and after a season where Iowa State tanked leads against both Texas and Iowa in games that were all but won, the bad taste leftover from those losses should galvanize this team to take another step forward in 2018.
Matt Campbell has this program on course to compete for a Big 12 title, albeit he’s still a few pieces short. With another year or two, the red and yellow crew might be in position to be playing for more than just bowl eligibility.
Sleeper
Oklahoma State: Odd to see the Pokes here. I mean, they’ve been in the national conversation for years now and seemingly, like Texas Tech, always have an offense that just puts up numbers on its worst days.
But in a weird way, they parallel West Virginia. Around this time last year, Mason Rudolph, James Washington and Marcell Ateman were being proclaimed an offensive juggernaut that could not/would not be stopped in 2017. The proclamations weren’t entirely untrue: Rudolph ended last year with a line of 4,904 yards/37 TD’s/9 INT’s which is really, really good. Washington went on to win the Biletnikoff award as the nation’s most outstanding receiver and the Cowboys put up 7,396 total yards which was good for second overall nationally.
Headed into 2018, West Virginia is receiving scarily similar hype with their own three-headed monster while Oklahoma State is noticeably absent from the bright lights. That’s not to say that the cupboard is bare in Stillwater or that the mullet has lost its madness.
Justice Hill is the league’s biggest homerun threat at the running back position and he will be the star of the show. While Mike Gundy is deliberating between Hawaii transfer Dru Brown and last year’s back up Taylor Cornelius for first team snaps, Jalen McCleskey and Dillon Stoner will provide ultra-reliable targets for whoever ends up throwing the rock. If there’s consistency on the O-line and if Gundy and co. can somehow find depth up front, this offense should have no problem putting points on the board the old fashioned way via steady ground & pound and then peppered with some deep shots downfield.
Defensively, the Cowboys will be transitioning to a 4-2-5 look, not entirely unlike what Gary Patterson is doing a couple hours to the south. Jordan Brailford is full of burst off the edge and will likely draw droves of double teams as OSU’s premier defender and there is plenty of experience on the perimeter as a pair of experienced corners return. All in all, this Cowboys defense is positioned to improve in 2018.
Missouri State and South Alabama should be prime dates to knock off any early season rust, although a meet-up with Boise State will probably be a touchdown fire sale. West Virginia has to make the flight to Stillwater and, assuming the weather sucks like it did last year in Morgantown, the Cowboys could have a slight advantage in that game. Either way, beating big brother Sooner and holding the Mountaineers at bay will be priority 1A & 1B, this season. Even if they only split even on that punch list, good things may unfold.
There’s no reason not to be optimistic about Oklahoma State, even if last years team only ended up being very good and not legitimately great. It’ll look different and it might even feel different in terms of execution on both sides of the ball, but if the orange and black manage to win despite all this, does any of it really matter?
Oklahoma State may just ruin someone’s travel plans to Dallas.
Who Runs the Lonestar State?
With Texas still trying to be “back”, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU are left to fight over de facto ownership of earth’s football capital. So of the three Texas schools not in Austin, who wears the crown?
Editor’s note: I’m not acknowledging TAMU, Houston or SMU. Just not gonna do it. Don’t @ me
The short answer is TCU. Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs tied with Baylor as conference champions in 2014 but have never outright won since joining the Big 12 alongside West Virginia in 2012. However, on an annual basis, TCU fields a notoriously stingy defense to go along with an offense that does its Big 12 best to move the ball with a steady combination of run/pass.
Texas Tech will do Texas Tech things and score lots of points. That’s what happens in Lubbock. But Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is red-hot and, while their defense actually has some legitimate playmakers (I see you, Dakota Allen), there’s nothing here going into 2018 to suggest that this program will take a significant step forward. The Red Raiders have had some prolific offenses over the last decade headed by the likes of Graham Harrell and Patrick Mahomes, but neither McLane Carter nor Jett Duffey have stood out and almost every receiving target from a year ago is gone. A Texas Tech team that leans on the run and plays solid defense? I don’t know what life is anymore.
Baylor, as everyone by now knows, is a colossal rebuild effort that is still years away from completion. When your program is rocked and subsequently eviscerated the way the Baylor’s was, it takes a total overhaul of talent, culture and belief that can only happen incrementally. Granted, Baylor was suuuuperrr young last year and returns practically everyone on both sides of the ball while also adding transfers Jalen Hurd, Jake Fruhmorgen and Jalan McClendon from Tennessee, Clemson and NC State, respectively. Baylor will most definitely take a step forward, just not the kind that will have them playing meaningful games in November. After going 1-11 last year, almost anything will be viewed as welcome progress.
Between recruiting and the foundation that Gary Patterson has successfully built in Fort Worth, TCU is the steward of the Texas throne until (and if) the Longhorns return to their former glory. As far as their prospects heading into 2018 are concerned, they have athletes and the defense will hum right along with, as I’ve now stated multiple times, breaking in a new quarterback is a gigantic leap back in this conference.
Sophomore Shawn Robinson is a balanced run/throw presence under center and he’s got reliable backs. KaVonae Turpin is one of the most dangerous return men in the nation and will be a reliable receiver. Ben Banogu is the next sack artist ready to roll off of TCU’s defensive assembly line. They get a shot early on against an Ohio State team that is now reeling from what could be an abrupt coaching change and gets just about everyone else at home, including Oklahoma. Granted, they make a long trip north late in the season to Morgantown where West Virginia, possibly white-hot, will be waiting.
No other team in Texas has the shot that TCU does at making a run in the conference and no other team can claim 11 wins in three of the last four seasons. The stockyard Frogs are deadly consistent and, as far as the Big 12 is concerned, no other team from Amarillo to Laredo, El Paso to Jasper, has a firmer grasp of the state of Texas than TCU.
Kansas Has Football People, Too
The fact that Bill Snyder is still doing this whole coaching bit is flat-out astounding. The head Wildcat will be 79 YEARS YOUNG in October. 79. This would be an equally impressive metric if Kansas State was a middling division-III team but no- Kansas State is a P5 program that has been winning for a long time. Barely an hour due east, folks in Lawrence know all about the tradition of winning, as well… just not when it comes to football.
Kansas State will enter 2018 in much the same way it’s entered every other season in recent memory: a simple, well-designed machine whose working parts are visible to all yet hard to stop all the same. Similarly, Kansas will enter 2018 bearing its own long-standing identity: a program that has chewed up coaches of varying repute and ability, spit them out and has but 28 wins since 2008 to show for it all.
The outlook for Kansas State isn’t bleak. Typically when the topic of going with dual quarterbacks is broached, collective groans abound. Not the case in Manhattan. Bill Snyder, as he’s proven time after time, will be able to field a functioning offense with Both Skyler Thompson and Alex Delton splitting time at the wheel. The Wildcats offensive line will be arguably the best in the conference and Alex Barnes leads a stable of more than capable runners which, true to Kansas State’s unrefined nature, might bore you to tears but will systematically pound opposing defenses into find powder.
Defensively, the Wildcats simply have to not suck against the pass which they did in 2017. Horribly, so. The defensive front should be serviceable and there are transfers in who can bolster the pass rush but D.J. Reed is getting paid to play on Sundays now and, while the offense will control a frustrating amount of clock, the defense simply can’t allow 350+ yards through the air every game. If they can manage that, wins will happen.
Kansas… oh, Kansas. I’m certain no one in the coaching world envies David Beaty but plenty of people damn sure respect him. The Jayhawks haven’t won more than five games since 2008 and have dropped 86 games to FBS teams since 2009. That’s really bad, guys.
Doug Meachem is there trying to breathe life into the Jayhawks offense and with guys like Khalil Herbert (who inexplicably ripped up 291 yards against West Virginia last season) and Steven Sims returning alongside 61 total lettermen, it’s definitely possible. Joe Dineen hits everything that moves, is a fine linebacker and is one of the lone bright spots on a defense that was second-to-last in the nation defending the pass last year. I don’t think I need to remind anyone that Kansas plays in the Big 12 and teams tend to pass. A lot.
Of course, they need to beat their FCS match-ups because…. well, that’s why you schedule teams like Nicholls State in the first place. If Kansas can find some sort of continuity at the quarterback position and if they can find stops on defense and, god-willing, force a turnover or two, there exists a very real possibility that last year’s win total is doubled. The cold, hard truth is that Kansas still has a ways to go before it’s playing meaningful conference games. The Jayhawks need to scratch and claw their way back to relevancy and while it won’t look pretty, it might be a shade better than it was in 2017. That’s all anyone can hope for.
Biggest Game:
Oklahoma at West Virginia, November 24th: Tryptophan be damned, this one will require you to be locked in. By most folks’ approximation, this game will set up the Big 12 title game to be played in Dallas just a week after the Sooners take a long flight up to Morgantown. In case you haven’t been keeping track, the Mountaineers have yet to beat the Sooners since joining the conference in 2012 and are chomping at the bit for another shot at the reigning in-conference champs. Fortunately for West Virginia, this will their best chance yet.
Baker Mayfield is gone, the Sooners are away from home and West Virginia, powered by a Will Grier-led offensive monstrosity, should be carrying a mountain of momentum. Still, this is Oklahoma and there’s no reason to expect that this will be anything short of a shoot out. The winner of this game will likely go on to win the conference and possibly represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff. For Dana Holgorsen and co., it’s time to put up or shut up. This game is likely to have it all: points, trash-talking, big plays downfield, prime Dana Holgorsen visor hair, couches being incinerated. A late November night game in the mountains, under the lights, for all the marbles. I’m already getting chills.
Tune in. You don’t want to miss this.
Conference Champ
West Virginia: This is finally the year. No more excuses, no more pontificating on needing to recruit better or establish continuity within the program. Everything is in place. Grier is an elite quarterback with a gold mine of talent surrounding him at every angle. The Mountaineers have played the transfer lottery as well as anyone in the country and between pilfering talent from JUCO, ACC, SEC and Pac-12 programs, they’ve built depth at multiple places on each side of the ball.
If the defense can get an effective pass rush going (they will) and the secondary can come up with a few more key stops (they should), this team is built to outscore and out run just about anyone in the country. Road wins against Tennessee and NC State will be huge, as will going on the road to beat Texas and Oklahoma State. The Sooners will be a bear at the very end of the season and Dana Holgorsen will need all of his guys operating at peak powers to get the win but this is the year that it all comes together and the ‘Eers, touting an 11 win season and an outright Big 12 title, won’t just be going bowling, but could very likely crash the playoff party in addition to Will Grier taking a trip up to New York for a certain trophy presentation.
Yes, we’ve heard all the same hype before and have seen West Virginia stumble in the biggest moments. This is a different team, however and history has shown that quarterbacks in their second year under Dana Holgorsen have improved exponentially. With a clean bill of health, a wealth of talented skill players who have bought in and Heisman-like confidence, Will Grier can take this team to the brink. It’s going to be a fun year in Morgantown.
Superlatives
Coach you’d most like to have a beer with: Tie between Mike Gundy and Dana Holgorsen. If Mike Leach was still at Texas Tech it would likely be him by a landslide because it’s Mike Leach and he is an absolute mad man. However, Mike Gundy rocks the most luscious mullet this side of the Mississippi and Holgorsen, no stranger to amazing hair himself, is nearly peerless when it comes to quality one-liners. Give me a boat, a case of beer, some classic rock and let the mullet and the skullet do the rest.
Best Barbecue: Sorry, Kansas City, but Texas still reigns supreme. There is no question that KC-style meats are delicious. Sometimes you just need pork ribs swimming in thick, tangy sauce to make the pain go away. But there’s something almost ethereal about slow-smoked brisket. The interplay between smoke and a simple dry-rub that lets the natural flavors of the meat shine through is truly one of man’s great achievements. While each regional variation of barbecue is delightful in its own way, there is simply no way to improve upon what the folks down in hill country have been doing for generations. To all you folks manning the pits and keeping the smoke rolling- we salute you.
Best Rivalry: Texas and Oklahoma. The Red River rivalry. Wagons and bulls. Crimson versus burnt orange. This one goes way, way back and there have been a multitude of epic battles. You could argue that Bedlam is just as intense a rivalry but ever since Nebraska and TAMU bolted for different conferences, Oklahoma and Texas are the reigning blue bloods and, regardless of what kind of year either one is having, this game is always played for blood. the BIG has big Blue and the Buckeyes. Down south its Roll Tide against War Eagle. Out on the west coast, it’s USC and then your pick of Oregon and UCLA. Texas may not be “back” and Oklahoma may not be quite what it was last year but, regardless, this game always packs an emotional punch and is always worth tuning in to.
Best song: Take Me Home, Country Roads is an absolute jam. That is all.
Where you’re most likely to party with a celebrity: Texas, probably, and I say that because Matthew McConaughey routinely shows up at games. Tailgating with Wooderson is legit bucket list material.
Highest scoring game: All of them. No, really, with the exception of Kansas vs. Kansas State (snore), each week has the potential for the combined box score to crest 140 points. The Big 12 is CRRRAAAZZZYYYY.
Boldest prediction: Kyler Murray buys customized Jordan’s 11’s for the first thousand fans through the gate at Oklahoma’s senior night.
Best Moment: Dana Holgorsen drinks so much Redbull in the first half of the NC State game that he turns into a ball of pure kinetic energy.