Nathan Eovaldi is Not Gonna Save Your Team
It’s definitely not surprising that folks are anointing Rays’ starter Nathan Eovaldi as the darling of the MLB trade deadline. He is, after all, a very affordable rental ($2 million) and someone who has pitched well in recent weeks. Is he actually the darling of the deadline, though? Not at all.
As you know, overreaction is something that happens often in the sports world. Remember when Boston Celtics’ guard Terry Rozier was treated like Paul Pierce after a few good games in the 2017-18 NBA Playoffs? Yeah, well it didn’t last.
Rozier’s first 10 playoff games: 19 ppg, 44.4 FG%, 42 3FG%
Rozier’s remaining 9 playoff games: 13.7 ppg, 36.3 FG%, 25.8 3FG%
Just like Rozier, folks are all wrapped up in Eovaldi’s recent performance. Instead of a huge sample, though, they’re geeked on his last three starts. Not seven or eight outings, but THREE!
To be fair, they were impressive outings (19 IP, 0.95 ERA, and 23 K’s combined) but they were also against the two worst teams in the National League — Miami and New York — and a club in the middle of a 2-10 stretch (Washington). And if that doesn’t make you look at those three starts differently, then maybe his outing immediately prior will do the trick. On June 20th, right before he rolled through the NL East, Eovaldi served up four home runs against Houston.
It begs the question: If you’re picking up a starter for the stretch-run and postseason, shouldn’t he have success against the league’s best?
With Nathan Eovaldi, you’re not getting that.
Against teams that would be in the playoffs right now, he is 0-3 in three starts with a 5.89 ERA (vs. NYY, SEA, HOU). And besides the four dingers allowed to the Astros, he allowed three in the other two games.
Nathan Eovaldi is a back-end guy on a good team — a No.5 starter. He rarely walks anyone, which can’t be undersold, but he doesn’t move the needle that much. Plus, he hasn’t had a ton of work since the summer of 2016 because of his second Tommy John Surgery.
Having said all that, Eovaldi could make sense for the ¹New York Yankees. Not as the first option, though, only if they’ve exhausted their other options. If J.A Happ or Chris Archer or any other top-line guy can be got, they need to act. They’ll actually move the needle. Eovaldi, after all, would be an upgrade over Domingo German in the fifth rotation spot.
Fangraphs had a headline recently that said Eovaldi “might be the best starter on the market”. This statement, despite all the heady stats to support it, doesn’t ring true to me. Instead, Eovaldi is a mediocre starter who pitched well in three games against a crummy competition at the same time J.A Happ had a few ugly outings in a row. Got it?
If your team trades for him, don’t get too excited. But at the same time, don’t get too upset, either.
¹Ironically, he was pitching for the Yankees in 2016 when he got hurt.