Oakland Raiders: Put the Jon Gruden Renaissance on Hold

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Returning to Oakland hasn’t been the homecoming Jon Gruden expected.

Jon Gruden was supposed to be the secret ingredient that fixed an underwhelming 2017 Oakland Raiders team. At least that was the plan Raiders owner Mark Davis envisioned when handing Jon Gruden the keys to the kingdom and kicking head coach Jack Del Rio (25-23 record as the Raiders head coach) to the curb.

Even after being out of the league for the last decade, Gruden’s mastery of the West Coast scheme presented a fascinating opportunity for upgrading the stale offense that was installed last season by first-time coordinator Todd Downing. After taking over for Bill Musgrave, who ran a 2016 Oakland offense that was averaging 373.3 yards per game (6th in the league) and 26 points per game (7th in the league), it was obvious Downing was way out of his depth. The offense fell apart in 2017, only averaging 324.1 yards per game (17th in the league) and 18.8 points per game (23rd in the league). With teams in the league adjusting their focus on offensive-minded coaches, the mere fact that Gruden’s west coast principles laid the groundwork for offensive guru’s like Sean Mcvay and Kyle Shanahan, both worked as low-level assistants for Gruden’s Buccaneers in the mid 2000’s, was enough to give him an eye-rolling 10 year, 100 million dollar contract. However, the season hasn’t been the Jon Gruden renaissance, Raider fans had hoped for.

Coming off an ugly 26-10 loss to the L.A. Chargers on Sunday, the Oakland Raiders are now a startling 1-5, and their impetuous season continues to spiral more and more out of control. Here’s the thing, Gruden was going to face some hiccups having not coached in ten years, that was a given, but even the most apoplectic doubters couldn’t have imagined it would be this disastrous.

How the Raiders devolved into this mess started with Gruden’s static approach in free agency. The Raiders biggest splurge was a two year, $14.2 million dollar deal for 33-year-old wide receiver Jordy Nelson, followed by running back Doug Martin, and a slew of subpar defensive players. Sure, Jordy Nelson has had his moments this season, but he hasn’t been quite the spark for unlocking the offense either. In a league where teams are finding ways to stockpile cheap rookie contracts, the Raiders are financing the highest paid offensive, filled with aging out-of-their-prime veterans. To make matters worse, Gruden’s decision to jettison the 2016 Defensive MVP, Khalil Mack, to Chicago for two first-round picks, has ravaged an already mangled defense that finished 29th in DVOA last season. It’s only fitting one month into the season the Bears have the best adjusted-sack rate while the Raiders are only one spot away from last place. Here a thought Gruden, don’t trade your best defensive player!

The one optimistic reasoning for hiring Gruden was his ability to catapult washed up quarterbacks to MVP caliber levels, but even that hasn’t quite come to fruition. Only two seasons ago Derek Carr was the talk of the league. When the Raiders went 21-4 in 2016, Carr threw for 3,937 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Whether or not analyst thought he was overrated, there was no doubt in his ability to make electric plays. But after a mediocre 2017 season where he threw for 3,496 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, Carr has become an afterthought in the league. Was he been as bad as the Blake Bortles and Eli Manning’s of the league? No, but he was in the same ballpark. And being paid like a top echelon quarterback hasn’t helped his case, with his $25 million dollar cap hit this year, Carr is the sixth highest paid quarterback in the league. If anything Gruden was brought in as a sign that the Raiders were doubling down on Carr. It wouldn’t be the first time Gruden had resurged a struggling veteran quarterback. Rich Gannon was 34 years old and had been in the league for 13 seasons before going to the pro bowl in 1999, under Gruden, who was in his first tenure as the Oakland Raiders head coach. Three years later he would win the MVP. But the massive leaps everyone thought Carr would make in Gruden’s schemes this year haven’t been so eloquent. Only a month into the season Carr hasn’t looked like the quarterback that was blowtorching the league in 2016. All blame shouldn’t be on Gruden, though, Derek Carr has been wildly inconsistent this season, complete with a league-high eight interceptions.

This pass is all you need to see to understand Carr’s struggles this season.

https://twitter.com/TheSportsNotes/status/1049061069858041856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Following the game, this was Gruden’s response to Carr’s interception. “He’s just trying, he’s just trying so hard,” Gruden said, via Jimmy Durkin of The Athletic. “I think he just presses at some moments and he knows we have to do a lot with the ball when we have it and I think that’s what happened today.” Statements like this have been the common refrain for most of the fifth year quarterbacks career. Prompting the question, can his bad throwing habits even be fixed? And if Jon Gruden can’t fix them, is it possible that Carr’s time as a Raider is limited? It would be highly unlikely considering the Raider’s investment in Carr is the main reason for hiring Gruden in the first place. But theoretically, the structure of Carr’s contract is set up so the Raider’s could cut him next offseason. Derek Carr has a cap hit of 22.5 million next year, but if the Raiders cut Carr before next season, the move would only cost them 7.5 million in dead money, saving the team 15 million. Call me crazy but considering how Carr is playing, cutting the quarterback and saving a cool 15 million doesn’t sound like the worst idea. With that being said were only five weeks into the season, and there are signs of hope with Carr. So far he’s thrown 1,641 yards (5th in the league), completing 71.3 percent of his passes (4th in the league), and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (9th in the league).

But anymore plays like the one below and Derek Carr might be joining his brother on the NFL Network.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairNFL/status/1039379918646202368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

On the bright side (if there even is a bright side?) Gruden, the head coach, hasn’t been as bad as Gruden the GM. When Carr isn’t making head-scratching throws, the offense has been able to move the ball with ease. Having Gruden at the helm this season, the offense has surpassed last years by an average of almost 100 yards per game. Not bad! And while Gruden neglected to add players to his roster that could have had an immediate impact, he has stocked piled draft picks for the next couple of years, and created financial flexibility for the teams’ salary cap starting next offseason. As Gruden and the Raiders continue to slog through what looks like a lost season, we can only assume that we’re far away from seeing the Gruden philosophy take its true form.

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