UVA Football Week 5 Betting Preview at Miami

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Virginia (2-2) at Miami (2-2)

  • When: Thursday, September 30 – 7:30 p.m.
  • Where: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
  • TV: ESPN
  • Line: Miami -5.5
  • M/L: Virginia +225, Miami -185
  • O/U: 62.5

After the North Carolina loss, I thought Virginia would bounce back against Wake Forest. I thought they were just a little flat after rolling backup quarterbacks from William & Mary and Illinois, then get back to business in front of a decent-sized home crowd against Wake Forest. I was wrong. They came out like your classic lame dash o’s. The Hoos got rolled by Wake Forest at Scott Stadium, and it got gradually worse as the game went on. Just like North Carolina. Now, their backs are essentially against the wall in the Coastal, and they’re going to Coral Gables…where Virginia is 0-3 during the Bronco era. On the one hand, it’s the only college football game on Thursday, so everyone will be watching if they get things back on track and win. On the other hand, everyone will be watching if they do the ol’ turnstile defense trick again.

Last Time Out

  • Virginia lost 37-17 at home to Wake Forest
  • Miami won 69-0 at home over Central Connecticut

ATS Records

  • Virginia (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
  • Miami (1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)

ATS Trends

  • Virginia (4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games)
  • Virginia (8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September)
  • Virginia (Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games in September)
  • Virginia (Over is 7-2 in Cavaliers last 9 games as an underdog)
  • Miami (1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite)
  • Miami (1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall)
  • Miami (Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 home games)
  • Miami (Over is 8-3 in Hurricanes last 11 games in September)
  • Matchup (Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between UVA & Miami)

Team Rankings (Conference)

  • Virginia (Total Offense 2; Total Defense 14)
  • Virginia (Scoring Offense 6; Scoring Defense 12)
  • Miami (Total Offense 5; Total Defense 9)
  • Miami (Scoring Offense 8; Scoring Defense 11)

Matchup To Watch

Virginia rushing attack vs. Miami defense

Virginia has abandoned the run, particularly with actual running backs. Especially surprising because Bronco talked them up so much prior to the season. As crazy as it is to say, no Virginia running back has more than 85 yards this season. Top back Wayne Taulapapa didn’t play Week 4, it should be noted. They may flip the script this week and try something different. After all, the Canes were torn up on the ground in both losses this season, and App State’s Cameron Peoples went for 17/95/1 in a 25-23 loss.

Key Injuries

  • Virginia running back Wayne Taulapapa missed last week’s game and is currently questionable.
  • Virginia tight end Jelani Woods is listed as questionable.
  • Miami quarterback D’Eriq King is listed as questionable. He didn’t play last week in their cupcake matchup with Central Conn. Jake Garcia and Tyler Van Dyke split time, combining five touchdown passes and just four incomplete passes.

Other Notes

  • Virginia ranks No. 1 in the nation in passing yards per game
  • Virginia has an all-time record of 7-15 on Thursday
  • Wayne Taulapapa needs 51 yards to become the 45th rusher in Virginia history to reach 1,000 career rushing yards

Cut The Check

There are several reasons why I’m keeping the faith. It’s possible D’Eriq King doesn’t play and he’s their most important piece. Second, Bronco hasn’t won in Coral Gables since taking the job and, frankly, that makes him/them way overdue. Points have been hard to come by in this matchup over the years; neither team has broken the 20 point barrier in their last three meetings. That’s not going to be the case this time, considering both their defensive units. If it’s going to be a shootout? You want Brennan Armstrong and those weapons, no doubt. Take Virginia with the points. I am leaning toward the over as well.