UVA Football Week 6 Betting Preview At Louisville

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Virginia (3-2) at Louisville (3-2)

  • When: Saturday, October 9 // 3:00 p.m.
  • Where: Cardinal Stadium // Louisville, KY
  • TV: ACCN
  • Line: Louisville -3
  • M/L: Virginia +115 // Louisville -135
  • O/U: 69

If this Virginia season was a book, Saturday’s game ideally starts a new chapter where the team gets back on track and builds off the previous chapter — their Week 5 road win over Miami. The Wahoos deserved to beat the Canes and their defense did an about-face in terms of effectiveness, but they should have lost. If not for a fortuitous missed field goal as time expired, they would have. So now, despite staring a third straight conference loss in the face as Andres Borregales lined up for that chip-shot field goal, Virginia has new life. They have a chance to digest the ups and downs from their first five games and present a product that’s consistent and reflects what they’re capable of.

Last Time Out

  • Virginia won 30-28 on the road vs. Miami
  • Louisville lost 37-34 in overtime at Wake Forest

ATS Records

  • Virginia (3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
  • Louisville (3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U)

ATS Trends

  • Virginia (8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall)
  • Virginia (21-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record)
  • Virginia (Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games in October)
  • Virginia (Over is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record)
  • Louisville (9-23-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record)
  • Louisville (7-16 ATS in their last 23 games in October)
  • Louisville (Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 home games)
  • Louisville (Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 games as a favorite)
  • Matchup (Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between Virginia & Louisville)
  • Matchup (Virginia is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings with Louisville)

Team Rankings (Conference)

  • Virginia (Total Offense 2; Total Defense 11)
  • Virginia (Scoring Offense 5; Scoring Defense 12)
  • Louisville (Total Offense 6; Total Defense 14)
  • Louisville (Scoring Offense 12; Scoring Defense 7)

Team Rankings (Overall)

  • Virginia (Total Offense 7; Total Defense 95)
  • Virginia (Scoring Offense 40; Scoring Defense 89)
  • Louisville (Total Offense 33; Total Defense 107)
  • Louisville (Scoring Offense 54; Scoring Defense 92)

Key Injuries

  • Virginia tight end Jelani Woods missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable.
  • Virginia kicker Justin Duenkel missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable.
  • Louisville starting quarterback Malik Cunningham is listed as questionable.

Other Notes

  • Keytaon Thompson beat Lamar Jackson and Louisville in his first career start in the 2017 Taxslayer Bowl. Thompson was playing QB for Mississippi State at the time.

Cut The Check

I can see this being the game of the weekend. Both teams are in great positions to come out and perform well. The Cardinals just dropped a heartbreaker to arguably the best team in the conference while the Wahoos got their mojo back against a team recognized as a national power. This one could be a 50-something to 40-something type ballgame, hopefully in favor of the Hoos. It’s a toss-up in terms of the spread. The total has climbed a bunch of points because everyone is hammering the over. Normally, I’d say stay away because of the public action but it’s a gut thing and these two teams are due for an OVER game.