UVA Football Week 7 Betting Preview vs. Duke (Homecoming Game)

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Duke (3-3) at Virginia (4-2)

  • When: Saturday, October 16 // 12:30 p.m.
  • Where: Scott Stadium // Charlottesville, VA
  • TV: ACCNX // MASN // ESPN3
  • Line: Virginia -10.5
  • M/L: Duke +325 // Virginia -425
  • O/U: 70

This will be the first homecoming game for Virginia (4-2, 2-2 ACC) since the 2019 season when they won a tight one 33-28 over Georgia Tech. Fans are ready, that’s for sure, and you can’t book a hotel in town on Saturday night without backing up the Brinks truck. What’s more, the Hoos are coming off an unprecedented two-week stretch where doomed game-winning field goals from the opponent secured the victory. Duke (3-3, 0-2 ACC) is looking for their first win in ACC play, as well as their first win on the road.

Last Time Out

  • Duke lost at home 31-27 to Georgia Tech
  • Virginia won 34-33 on the road over Louisville

ATS Records

  • Duke (4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
  • Virginia (4-2 ATS, 1-5 O/U)

ATS Trends

  • Duke (0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games)
  • Duke (1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games)
  • Duke (2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog)
  • Duke (Over is 7-2 in their last 9 games following a loss)
  • Virginia (5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite)
  • Virginia (9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall)
  • Virginia (Over is 10-4 in Cavaliers last 14 home games)
  • Virginia (Over is 12-5 in Cavaliers last 17 games following an ATS win)
  • Matchup (Duke is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. Virginia)
  • Matchup (Over is 4-1 in the last 5 Duke-Virginia games at Scott Stadium)

Team Rankings (Conference)

  • Duke (Total Offense 3, Total Defense 13)
  • Duke (Scoring Offense 7, Scoring Defense 13)
  • Virginia (Total Offense 2, Total Defense 12)
  • Virginia (Scoring Offense 5, Scoring Defense 12)

Team Rankings (Overall)

  • Duke (Total Offense 12, Total Defense 101)
  • Duke (Scoring Offense 50, Scoring Defense 92)
  • Virginia (Total Offense 6, Total Defense 97)
  • Virginia (Scoring Offense 35, Scoring Defense 91)

Key Injuries

  • Virginia kicker Justin Duenkel has missed two games and is listed as questionable.
  • Virginia wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks left last week’s game in the first quarter after suffering a blow to the head and is listed as questionable this week.

Other Notes

  • Saturday’s game is Virginia’s 96 homecoming game.
  • Virginia has six consecutive wins against Duke.

Cut The Check

Virginia’s defense has shown improvement over the last two weeks and they’ve played well against Duke specifically in the Bronco Mendenhall era. Since 2016, they haven’t allowed more than 21 points to the Blue Devils. and last season the Wahoos forced Duke into seven turnovers (including five interceptions). Look for the unit to really show out in front of the hometown fans on Saturday as a way to wash away memories of their most recent home game, the Wake Forest disaster from Week 4.

I’m not crazy about laying double-digits here, though the Hoos have covered their last four games when double-digit chalk (including two this season). Still, it must be done as there’s no way the Blue Devils can keep up with Brennan Armstrong and company. I see the score running up beyond 80 — UVA is susceptible to huge chunk plays, after all — with the home team breaking the 50-point barrier. Definitely ride with the OVER in this game.