Potential Cinderella Teams in the 2021 NCAA Tournament

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Every year a few unheralded teams pry their way into the hearts of NCAA Tournament viewers by pulling off a few upsets and making it to the second week. Cinderella teams, for shorthand. This year, whether it’s because the season was so different or the field is so deep, it seems like there are more potential Cinderellas than usual. After all, with the transfer portal constantly buzzing, almost everyone has some form of high-major talent.

Potential Cinderella Teams

#13 Liberty (Midwest)

Located in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, Liberty is a rising athletics program. Their football team made the jump to FBS in 2018 and found themselves beating Syracuse and Virginia Tech this past year en route to a 10-1 season and No. 17 ranking. Their hoops team has kept up under head coach Ritchie McKay. Had there been a tournament last year, McKay and the Flames would be in their third consecutive dance.

This year’s team has already proven they’re next level. The Flames beat SEC teams South Carolina and Mississippi State early in non-conference play and led Mizzou (also in the NCAA Tournament) at halftime. They buzzed through the ASUN as well, going 14-2 overall, but what sticks out is how tough they scheduled out-of-conference. Also notable is how Liberty does things: McKay keeps his players in Lynchburg and deploys a deep rotation. Between the whole group, there’s not one game played from another D-1 program. Junior Darius McGhee is one of the staples who’s been around for the program’s rise and won the conference’s POTY honors this year after putting up 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Liberty, who plays the same Pack Line defense as nearby Virginia, opens up against No. 4 Oklahoma State.

#12 UC Santa Barbara (West)

Besides having one of the best nicknames in college sports — how ’bout them Gauchos? — UC Santa Barbara had a fortuitous draw when the bracket was released. They’ll play No. 5 Creighton in the first round, a team coming off an absolutely embarrassing 25-point loss to Georgetown (who wasn’t near the bubble) in the Big East Tournament Championship. If they can get past the Bluejays — UC Santa Barbara is a 7.5-point underdog — they’ll likely play No. 4 Virginia. The Wahoos have been known to struggle with teams that can make it rain — UCSB is a Top 50 three-point shooting team — and they’ll be without one of their rotation players (it could be Sam Hauser, who knows) for the first two games of the tournament.

Even though this is their first NCAA Tournament appearance under fourth-year head coach Joe Pasternack, he completely turned the program around. They were 6-22 before he took over but 88-33 since with four straight 20-win seasons. Like Liberty, they’re also led by their conference’s player of the year — Oregon State transfer JaQuori McLaughlin. The Gauchos have two other power-conference transfers in their starting unit — senior Brandon Cyrus, a transfer from DePaul, and junior Miles Norris, a former Oregon Duck. Also, the Gauchos were one of Jay Bilas‘ first-round upset picks.

#11 Utah State (South)

The Aggies earned an at-large bid into the 2021 NCAA Tournament after winning 20 games. Their two biggest wins came against Mountain West powerhouse San Diego State but they play everyone tough. When you have a Top 10 defense, that’s no surprise. With superb length — 27th in average height across all D-1 hoops — they dominate the glass and at the rim. Utah State goes into the tournament ranked No. 4 in two-point field goal percentage allowed and No. 7 in block percentage. A lot of that is directly tied to seven-footer Neemias Queta, who averaged a double-double and 3.2 blocks per game. They’re currently +24000 to win the entire thing, according to Sports Betting Dime.

Up first for the Aggies is No. 6 Texas Tech, a so-so draw. The Red Raiders are a solid program but their strength offensively is inside the arc. If good interior defense can stop good interior offense, State could be advancing. They’re also a team with a lot of homegrown talent but one of their few incoming transfers — Marco Anthony — has made a huge difference and could help even more come tournament time. Anthony came from Virginia and was a member of the Wahoos’ 2019 national championship team. Anthony started every game he played in this season and, in addition to top-notch defensive play, emerged as a real stat-stuffer on offense. He slashed 10/5/3.1 this year with almost one steal per game.

Other Possibilities

#12 Winthrop (South)

Another Jay Bilas upset pick, Winthrop is playing a Collin Gillespie-less Villanova team in the first round.

#10 Rutgers (Midwest)

Not a traditional Cinderella because they’re a Big Ten team, but this is the first dance for Rutgers since 1991 — a lot of lesser-known teams have had multiple bids since then. The Scarlet Knights are a great story after Steve Pikiell came in and rebuilt the program. They play tough D and are led by Texas transfer Jacob Young and Ron Harper Jr., son of NBA champ Ron Harper. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made it to the Sweet Sixteen.